Prognosen sind schwierig, besonders wenn sie die Zukunft betreffen.
Karl Valentin, Mark Twain oder Niels Bohr zu. (Wikipedia)
Natürlich ist es immer schwierig, Vorhersagen zu treffen. Nachdem es sich bei dem Urheber des Zitates um einen führenden Ökonomen handelt, kann man das ein bisschen strenger betrachten. Um etwas positiver zu sein, kann man an der stelle vielleicht noch anführend, dass Deutschland offenbar nach wie vor Marktführend in der Anwendung von Faxgeräten ist:
The tech industry is optimizing everything around us, disrupting every aspect of social, business or whatsoever. The thought everything will be easier is just so tempting to everybody remotely involved in anything remotely digital. And that’s why so many app-developers, start-ups, evangelists feel inspired by the opportunity. Every new idea needs to be ground breaking, revolutionizing. And that’s why that concept of “disruptive” became so popular, even while interpreted fundamentally wrong by this group of technologists. Clayton M. Christensen who coined the term, explored development of disk drives and described generational change in the technology, each disrupting the market of the previous generation.
However, none of the following generations of disk drives was designed as “disruptive“, but to have advantages over the previous one. (more…)
