Der Jahresanfang ist immer wieder die Zeit für Vorhersagen für alles was da kommt. In der Regel sind solche Vorhersagen recht konservativ oder sehr ausgefallen. Ein Artikel, der heute in einem IEEE Diskussionsforum zu finden war, lässt allerdings auch den Schluss zu, dass im High-Tech Umfeld offenbar oft ein gemeinsames Verständnis von Grundlagen und Zielsetzungen fehlt.

Predictions for Cloud Computing 2013

Let me go through the arguments I found in that blogpost:

"The cost of cloud computing services is definitely going to come down."

Cost is the entire basis for cloud computing. From the very beginning, cloud services were designed as a “pay what you use” model, to allow any client for cheaper consumption models.

The article mentions more and more small and medium sized businesses shift to cloud computing, not the cost of cloud services will come down, but will safe those businesses significant spending.

"Cloud computing is going to start capturing the mobile phone arena."

Again, this is not a trend for 2013, it is the basis for cloud computings existance. While the article mentions limitations in storage, Kingston announced a 1 Terrabyte USB token at this years CES. Clearly, the availability across devices, or in other words the Cloud, is the driver for the adoption of mobile devices.

Earlier, the focus for many cloud computing companies was to get inside the minds of small sized business owners.

Considering the history and origins of “Cloud Computing”, along with its service providers, this seems awkwardly wrong. Cloud Computing offers the most benefits for large audiences, big datasets and global operations. Scalability is one of the buzzwords that keep popping up in the context, scalability beyond traditional server installations. Clearly not something small sized businesses need or their owners do think about. Only the rise of SaaS offerings allows small business owners to get rid of software licenses, thus opening an opportunity for such an audience.

Cloud computing security is definitely going to change this year.

This is much the only argument that I can agree to, I doubt this is a technical challenge, or in first degree related to cloud computing. The situation that has to change with regards to security

The experts also believe that it’s time the cloud computing companies started thinking about real-time customer requirements and offering solutions accordingly.

Again, same story with this prediction. This is what cloud computing is about. Twitter offers large scale, global real time communication. There are numerous analytics offerings, that crunch huge datasets, quicker than traditional solution. Big Data is the keyword in this context, and map/reduce or Hadoop have been discussed for at least two years by now.

My prediction

The thought would not be complete without my own predictions. My outlook is not visionary either. Cloud Computing will remain a buzzword, along with Big-Data and In-Memory Computing. What will happen is that we will see more SaaS services, on more mobile devices. For the device end of cloud computing, Microsoft has a good chance of getting a piece of that market, but also Ubuntu and Firefox mobile will deliver some news in 2013. On the Cloud-End, we will see a continuation of what we saw past years. Amazon will push it’s AWS service, Google will offer broader services to compete with Amazons. Maybe we see another cloud-idea emerging, just like drop-box did. And we will see how Facebook, and potentially Yahoo, will acquire these or build a copy.

Consumers will be more aware of the complexity behind the “Easy to use” surface and become more sceptic towards cloud service providers. However, this will not result in reduced usage. At least not in 2013.

quotes via Predictions for Cloud Computing in 2013.